This Blog is about sports betting strategies
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World Cup Betting Strategy, Bet Systems, & Tips
World Cup 2010 Betting Tips - How to Bet on the World Cup
World Cup soccer betting represents both a hugely exciting prospect, as well an enormously difficult challenge. The event happens just once every four years, making form thin on the ground, while qualification ends many months before the first game of the finals is played, in which time a lot can change. World Cup betting is often a favourite for recreational players who'll line up patriotically behind their nation, which is a boon to bookmakers who are able to exploit this blind faith, with poor value odds to win the World Cup. There are however, some reliable World Cup betting trends and golden rules which may help bettors navigate though the minefield, and develop a successful World Cup betting strategy. One of the most striking World Cup trends which covers all 18 events since the tournament was established back in 1930, is that the coach of the winning team has always been from that nation. This should immediately sound alarm bells for anyone who has or is thinking of backing England, the current third favourites on Pinnacle Sports' World Cup soccer odds. The Three Lions have been heavily tipped after a flawless qualification campaign, and in Wayne Rooney, have one of the world's best strikers. However, their coach is an Italian, Fabio Capello, so anyone who has great faith in such trends will give England a wide berth.
There are of course a few caveats with this rule. Firstly, employing coaches who aren't natives has only been a feature of the last twenty years. Secondly, the most successful soccer nations have such a wide base of coaches to choose from that resorting to a foreign national - as in England's case - hasn't been necessary. England are in fact the first established nation to go down this route, giving the first true test to this World Cup trend, but doesn't that in itself say something about the state of English soccer?
Another important point to note is that the World Cup isn't the only major international soccer event. The European Championships comes a close second, and follows a similar format, though with fewer teams. Greece showed in the 2004 tournament that it is possible to succeed with foreign help. German, Otto Rehhagel, guided the Greeks to an unlikely success, the first foreign coach to do so. He has guided Greece to South Africa in 2010 where he will be looking to buck the trend again.
World Cup Betting Tips - The Host Nation Has Never Failed to Progress
The World Cup in South Africa will give a severe test to the rule to date that the host nation has never failed to progress beyond the first round. South Africa are ranked outisiders at 156.00* on Pinnacle's odds to win the World Cup, and have drawn a very tough group alongside Mexico, Uruguay and France - all experienced soccer nations. South Africa failed to even qualify for the 2010 African Nations Cup in Angola, and have experienced managerial turmoil, with 10 different coaches in as many years. History is the only comfort to the Bfana Bfana (the Boys), as South Korea and Japan punched above their weight in 2002, as did the USA in 1994 when widely tipped for an early exit. Ultimately the betting at Pinnacle Sports gives the clearest indication of the strength of this trend, as they rate South Africa as 2.900* on their odds to advance from Group A, with an elimination available as 1.461*.
World Cup Betting Tips - Winner Usually Comes From Host Continent
Looking back at the previous 18 World Cups, on only two occasions has the winner come from a different continent to the host. In 1958 Brazil, inspired by a teenage Pele, won the first of their five titles in Sweden. The tournament has been held in Europe on nine other occasions, and every time a European team has won. In 2002 Brazil won again, this time in South Korea/Japan, but this result is less relevant given that the hosts where the only Asian teams in the tournament, and realistically had little chance, though interestingly South Korea confounded all predictions by making it to the semi-finals.
The relevance of this trend for the World Cup 2010 is that it suggests that the six African nations should do well. Pinnacle Sports has odds on African Teams Progressing, with odds of 1.06* that an African team will make the knock-out stage; 1.465* the quarter-finals; 2.610* the semi-finals and 5.040* an African team will appear in the final. Another key point which has been missed is that Africa is a very diverse continent, with South Africa very different to say Nigeria or Cameroon. The tournament actually takes place during South African winter, when the weather will actually be quite cold, wet and windy, which will suit European teams, especially England. Importantly, six of the ten stadiums are over 1,000m above sea level, so altitude will become a key factor, with players required to expend more oxygen to produce the same effort. This will be especially important for players not at 100% fitness, and previous World Cups in Mexico (1970 & 1986) illustrated how important a factor this can be.
World Cup Betting Tips - Defence More Important Than Attack
Many punters will study the 32 teams playing in the World Cup and try to identify which team has the best chance of scoring goals, naturally associating this with the best chance of overall success. This isn't always the case, as illustrated by the fact the Top Scorer at the World Cup has come from the winning team in only three of the 18 tournaments to date. In 2006 it was Italy's defence that was pivotal with Gianluigi Buffon winning the Lev Yashin award for best goalkeeper, keeping five clean sheets from seven games, which included a 453 minutes stretch without conceding, and captain, Fabio Cannavaro - who plays in central defence - the runner-up in the Golden Ball award for the best player at the event. Greece shocked everyone to win Euro 2004 on the back of a rock-solid defence, progressing through the knock-out stages with three identical 1-0 wins.
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